Monday, March 06, 2006

Phooey on Statistics


Well, they were hoping that by now, the tumors would have shrunk by about 50%. These had shrunk, if at all, maybe 1 cm. On the good side, the character looks different. Perhaps the necrosis is happening from the inside out.

So, Little Warrior is now going to be on doxorubicin, as well as the Dactinomycin and Vincristine. 6 weeks from now, she goes in to surgery, no matter what.

The statistics, overall, for Wilms' look great -- 90+% survival.

However, here's the deal about statistics. The chance of getting Wilms? 1 in 10,000. Chance of getting bilateral Wilms? 5% of that number.

So, 90% survival ... means 1 in 10 won't survive.


I won't keep going with the math.

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